Key takeaways: UKMTO confirmed 12 vessel attacks near Hormuz in the week to October 16, a record pace, with transits 70% below pre-war levels. The US and Iran dispute control of the strait and whether ships hit mines or projectiles.
The world’s most important oil chokepoint has just suffered its worst week of shipping attacks since the US–Israel war with Iran began, with merchant traffic still running about 70 percent below its pre-war level.
The United Kingdom Maritime Trade Operations agency (UKMTO) reported late Friday that at least 12 vessels were attacked in and around the Strait of Hormuz in the week ending October 16. Ten of the incidents took place inside the strait, with one each in the Arabian Gulf and the Gulf of Oman. Of the 12 confirmed targets, six continued to their destinations or reached port, one was lost, two were disabled or left not under command, and three had unconfirmed outcomes.
Among the confirmed losses, a container ship was struck by an unidentified projectile near Ras Shaykh Masud on October 13, caught fire, and sank the following day, according to UKMTO. All crew members were evacuated. In a newer attack type reported Saturday, a tanker’s master said the vessel was hit by a rocket-propelled grenade fired from a small boat about 78 nautical miles northeast of the Saudi city of Jubail, damaging its aft port quarter.
The agency cautioned the true number is likely higher, because most targeted vessels refuse to report incidents. The agency said it has recorded 84 incidents in the strait since the conflict began in late February, and warned it was “struggling to accurately report” the full count.
The transit numbers paint a stark picture. The agency logged 125 outbound and 129 inbound transits over the past seven days — down from 275 total the week before. Oil flows through the strait averaged 11.6 million barrels per day over the seven days to October 13, about 68 percent of the 17.1 million-barrel pre-war baseline, according to data firm Kpler. Brent crude touched $110 a barrel on Friday for the first time since May.
The US military offered a sharply different account of who controls the waterway. In a video message late Friday, US Central Command chief Brad Cooper said 400 ships and 100 million barrels of oil moved through the strait over the past week. “Let me be clear: The Strait of Hormuz is controlled by the United States and our regional partners, not Iran,” he said, attributing the surge in attacks to “desperation” by Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps.
The competing claims extended to the weapons in play. The IRGC said Saturday that a supertanker carrying more than two million barrels of crude caught fire after striking a naval mine while using an “unauthorised” route — but CENTCOM insisted the strait has been cleared of mines and that vessels are being struck by projectiles. The US military said a civilian container ship, the M/V GFS Pride, was hit by an IRGC projectile and sank while being towed to shore.
Washington’s stance carries economic teeth: CENTCOM said its “ironclad” naval blockade of Iran’s southern ports has cost Tehran $25 billion in oil export income, and that it recently seized $350 million in Iranian cryptocurrency financing. Iran, in turn, has warned vessels off routes it considers illegal through its Persian Gulf Strait Authority. Acting defence minister Majid Ibn Reza said Saturday it would be “Iranian missiles, not US bombs,” that determine the war’s future.
The conflict began February 28 with US and Israeli attacks on Iran, followed by a ceasefire in April; clashes resumed as negotiations stalled, with a framework agreement signed in June. Messages are still being relayed through mediators including Pakistan and Qatar, with no breakthrough expected soon — and concerns Washington could escalate after the November 3 midterm elections.
