Lula Wins Brazil Election for Historic Fourth Term

Brazil’s President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva has won a historic fourth term, defeating Senator Flávio Bolsonaro in Sunday’s presidential runoff and overturning a first-round defeat that had made him the underdog.

Brazil’s Superior Electoral Court (TSE) declared Lula mathematically elected on Sunday night, 25 October 2026, once the count had advanced far enough that his lead could no longer be overtaken. Reported figures put Lula at about 51.8 per cent of valid votes against about 48.2 per cent for Bolsonaro, a margin of more than 4.3 million votes. The percentages are shares of valid votes, which exclude blank and invalid ballots.

The result breaks a pattern that had held since Brazil returned to direct presidential elections in 1989: until now, every runoff had been won by the candidate who finished first in the opening round. Lula, 80, of the Workers’ Party (PT), is also the first person to be elected president of Brazil four times, after victories in 2002, 2006 and 2022 and terms in office from 2003 to 2010 and again from 2023.

Key takeaways

Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva won Brazil’s 2026 presidential runoff with about 51.8% of valid votes, beating Flávio Bolsonaro by more than 4.3 million votes.
It is the first runoff win since 1989 by a candidate who finished second in the first round.
Bolsonaro refuses to concede and will seek annulment.
Lula’s term begins 5 January 2027.

Illustrative graphic of a ballot box beside a map of Brazil in green, yellow and blue — Illustration: WHAT TODAY?

A runoff that reversed the first round

The runoff on 25 October followed a first round on 4 October in which Bolsonaro, 45, a senator for the Liberal Party (PL) and the eldest son of former president Jair Bolsonaro, finished ahead with 47.03 per cent of valid votes against Lula’s 45.16 per cent. That result set up three weeks of intense campaigning in South America’s largest country, fought largely over the cost of living, crime and corruption.

Early counting on Sunday evening saw the lead change hands before Lula pulled ahead as returns came in from urban centres and the heavily populated north-east, and then widened his advantage as the count neared completion. Turnout was high: more than 128 million ballots were cast from an electorate of about 158.7 million, a turnout rate above 80 per cent.

Voting hours were extended by two hours on the day itself. Supreme Court Justice Cristiano Zanin ordered the extension after transport problems and severe weather disrupted voters’ access to polling stations in parts of the country. The decision became the central dispute of the night.

Bolsonaro refuses to concede

Flávio Bolsonaro told supporters in the capital, Brasília, that he would not accept the result and would take legal action. “It is impossible to recognize the election result given how these events unfolded,” he said. “We will take legal action. We will ask for this election to be annulled.”

His objection centres on the Supreme Court’s last-minute extension of voting hours, which he described as unacceptable and as changing the rules during the contest. The TSE’s president, Kassio Nunes Marques, expressed confidence in the electoral process, and the result’s margin — more than twice the margin by which Jair Bolsonaro lost to Lula in 2022 — has led analysts to doubt that a challenge can succeed.

There is also an awkward detail for the challenge: Bolsonaro’s own campaign had itself asked for voting hours to be extended in southern states because of rain, before objecting to the nationwide extension that was ultimately ordered. The annulment request, if filed, will test whether the courts find any legal basis to revisit a result decided by millions of votes, rather than by a narrow margin.

The refusal to concede echoes his father’s reaction after losing to Lula in 2022. Jair Bolsonaro never accepted that defeat and was later sentenced to 27 years in prison for plotting a coup to remain in power. Flávio Bolsonaro’s attempt to return his family to the presidency has now failed at the ballot box, just as his father’s did four years ago.

Why the result matters beyond Brazil

Brazil is Latin America’s largest economy and its most populous country, so its choice of president carries weight well beyond its borders. Lula’s victory runs against a broader rightward shift in Latin American politics in recent years, and it keeps a left-of-centre government in power in Brasília at a time when the region’s political map has been moving in the opposite direction.

Lula is also a vocal critic of United States President Donald Trump and of expanding US influence in Latin America, and his re-election is likely to be read in Washington and across the region as a setback for that influence. On Monday, Lula framed the win in those terms, saying Brazil would not be dictated to by outside powers and would give ordinary people a greater role in decisions. “We are going to change the way we govern this country,” he said after his re-election. “We are going to give the people a greater role in our decisions.”

World leaders were quick to congratulate him. Mexico’s President Claudia Sheinbaum wrote that “the people of Brazil won”, while Canada’s Prime Minister Mark Carney said relations between Canada and Brazil had advanced under Lula and urged both countries to seize the opportunity to strengthen them further.

For Pakistan and other countries watching from outside the Americas, the immediate relevance is less about domestic Brazilian policy than about the direction of the world’s largest democracies and the global economy: Brazil is a major exporter of food, energy and minerals, and political stability in Brasília affects commodity markets, climate negotiations and the balance of influence between Washington and the capitals of the Global South.

What happens next

Lula’s fourth term is scheduled to begin on 5 January 2027 and run to 2030. His first task will be governing with a Congress that leans to the right. He acknowledged that constraint in his victory speech, noting that he does not choose the legislature and must work with the Congress voters chose to pass his agenda.

That agenda will be shaped by the campaign’s central issues: easing the cost of living, tackling crime and restoring confidence in public finances after a campaign in which social benefits were expanded. Lula campaigned on a mix of pragmatism and social spending aimed at workers and poorer Brazilians, and the test of his fourth term will be whether that programme can be funded without destabilising the economy.

The legal dispute will run in parallel. If Bolsonaro files for annulment, the electoral court will have to rule on whether the voting extension — ordered by a Supreme Court justice in response to transport and weather disruption — provides any ground to overturn the result. Until that ruling, Brazil faces a period of political uncertainty, with a defeated candidate refusing to concede and a president-elect preparing to govern a deeply divided country.

The deeper question is whether the losing side accepts the institutions that ran the vote. Brazil’s electronic voting system and electoral court have repeatedly been defended by the courts themselves, and the margin here leaves little room for a recount to change the outcome. But in a country where the last transfer of power ended in a coup plot and a prison sentence, the manner of the concession — or its absence — matters almost as much as the result itself.

Frequently asked questions

Who won Brazil’s 2026 presidential election?

President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva won the runoff on 25 October 2026, defeating Senator Flávio Bolsonaro with about 51.8 per cent of valid votes. Brazil’s electoral court declared him mathematically elected on Sunday night, and his fourth term begins on 5 January 2027.

Why is Lula’s win historic?

Lula is the first candidate since Brazil returned to direct presidential elections in 1989 to win a runoff after finishing second in the first round, and the first person to be elected president of Brazil four times. He previously won in 2002, 2006 and 2022.

Why does Flávio Bolsonaro refuse to accept the result?

Bolsonaro says he will seek annulment because the Supreme Court extended voting by two hours on election day, after transport problems and severe weather disrupted polling access. He called the extension unacceptable, though his own campaign had also sought an extension in southern states.

When does Lula’s new term start?

Lula’s fourth term is scheduled to begin on 5 January 2027 and run to 2030. He will have to work with a Congress that leans to the right to pass his legislative programme.